OK, there's more interesting stuff coming up soon, including an industry response to my previous rant about the DVD of The Piano Teacher. But I just got back from San Francisco and wanted to make an official stab at predicting the Oscar nominations in a few major categories — even if nobody much is going to see them before the official announcement tomorrow. Mad props as usual to Alex Fung, whose picks mine closely resemble, though I swapped out a name here and there. We'll see if my tweaks get any closer to the eventual truth.

I predict token noms for The Pianist, reflecting the Academy's alleged conscience, and My Big Fat Greek Wedding, reflecting its impulses toward populism, but I don't expect either of them to win the big prize come Oscar night. I further expect The Two Towers to get roundly dismissed from the major categories. I feel the perception is that it's a fine film, but not quite fine enough for this crowd. I also couldn't resist listing my man Almodovar for directorial honors, and was pleasantly surprised to see Alex doing the same. Fingers will be crossed tomorrow morning — I'd be happy to see this one come to pass. (I'd be even happier to see Maggie Gyllenhaal's name replace Nia Vardalos's in the actress category, but I doubt that's in the cards.)

The eventual Best Picture winner? I'd bet on either Chicago or The Hours, with Scorsese getting a consolation Director price in honor of his brilliant career. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Gangs completely absent from the Best Picture line-up — though I seem to be one of the few film writers who really believe it belongs there. (I also think Bowling For Columbine should get a Best Original Screenplay nod — Best Editing, too — and had it on my ballot for the Cinemarati awards.)

Enough talk. The Oscars are at best an excuse for an amusingly extended parlor game for film buffs and at worst a single evening's kitschy entertainment. More often than not, I have to rack my brain nine months later just to remember who took home the big prizes. I certainly don't take them as any reflection or indicator of real quality in cinema. That said, my picks follow. Not who I wish would win the noms, but who I think will win them.

Addendum: My correct picks are in boldface. The noms I missed follow in italics below each category.

Best Picture

CHICAGO
THE HOURS
GANGS OF NEW YORK
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING
THE PIANIST

THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS

A pleasant surprise.

Best Director

Martin Scorsese, GANGS OF NEW YORK
Roman Polanski, THE PIANIST
Rob Marshall, CHICAGO
Pedro Almodovar, TALK TO HER
Alexander Payne, ABOUT SCHMIDT

Stephen Daldry, THE HOURS

Good for Pedro. Turns out "Action" Peter Jackson is the sole snubee in this line-up, making room for the furrener. Granted, Schmidt was a stupid pick on my part.

Best Actor

Adrien Brody, THE PIANIST
Daniel Day-Lewis, GANGS OF NEW YORK
Jack Nicholson, ABOUT SCHMIDT
Michael Caine, THE QUIET AMERICAN
Richard Gere, CHICAGO

Nicolas Cage, ADAPTATION

I'm actually quite pleased by this turn of events, as well, since I figured Richard Gere would not/could not get passed over for his role in the crowd-pleasing Chicago and really enjoyed Cage. Is this the first time someone's been nominated for two performances (as two different characters) in the same film? Naomi Watts got ignored last year, so she wouldn't count.

Best Actress

Salma Hayek, FRIDA
Nicole Kidman, THE HOURS
Julianne Moore, FAR FROM HEAVEN

Meryl Streep, THE HOURS
Nia Vardalos, MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING

Diane Lane, UNFAITHFUL
Renée Zellweger, CHICAGO

OK, this isn't very impressive. My Big Fat Greek Wedding got shut out, good. (OK, it got a screenplay nod. Fine.) And I still haven't seen The Hours so can't comment on Streep. (I get the feeling she doesn't really need any more of these in her life, though.) Further, it was stoopid of me to bet against Zellweger. Thought Diane Lane was quite good in Unfaithful, a mediocre movie.

Best Supporting Actor

Chris Cooper, ADAPTATION
Ed Harris, THE HOURS
Alfred Molina, FRIDA
Dennis Quaid, FAR FROM HEAVEN
John C. Reilly, CHICAGO

Paul Newman, ROAD TO PERDITION
Christopher Walken, CATCH ME IF YOU CAN

Dennis Quaid's absence here is bullshit, since he reached so far and so successfully for his role in Far From Heaven. I mean, I completely forgot, for the first time in my life, that I was watching Dennis freaking Quaid up there, and just believed in the character. A tough role, and a tough performance. Such a shame. Chris Cooper rocks bells, though, in Adaptation. I picked Reilly for Chicago, though I didn't even care for "Mr. Cellophane," the obviously Oscar-ready showpiece he was so generously handed, and it's a little weird that Paul Newman gets the nod for simply bothering to show up for Road to Perdition, though he remains a class act.

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, ABOUT SCHMIDT
Toni Collette, THE HOURS
Queen Latifah, CHICAGO
Meryl Streep, ADAPTATION
Catherine Zeta-Jones, CHICAGO

Julianne Moore, THE HOURS

OK, I picked the wrong secondary performance from The Hours. Sue me. 'Teef was an obvious Academy selection (though she'll lose to Zeta-Jones on the big night), but Gere has to feel kinda singled out for non-honors this morning, don'tcha think?

Biggest surprise? Could it be that Bowling For Columbine actually scored a nom, ending a multi-year run in which the one famous, oft-seen documentary fails to make the documentary shortlist for some reason or another. And it looks like Eminem will be at the big show, not for acting (snort) but for his infectious "Lose Yourself" from 8 Mile.

Total? 22 out of 30 correct. Eh. Alex Fung made 24 out of the same 30, so I suggest you go read his page instead.

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